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Study says developer interest shifts back to Apple from Android

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A study has revealed that developer momentum is shifting back toward Apple as fragmentation and tepid interest in current Android tablets chip away at Google’s recent momentum gains.

The report also reveals the rise of the ‘mobile cloud’, a major trend toward connected mobility that promises to partially address the issue of fragmentation and transform the relationship between business and customer.

The study shows that interest in Android has recently plateaued as concerns around fragmentation and disappointing results from early tablet sales have caused developers to pull back from their previous steadily increasing enthusiasm for Android. Nearly two-thirds of respondents believe that it is not possible for Microsoft, RIM, HP, and Nokia to reverse momentum relative to Apple and Google.

Underscoring the fluidity of the mobile ecosystem and in a peculiar turn of events, recent simultaneous drops in developer interest in Windows Phone 7 and BlackBerry OS moved Windows Phone 7 ahead of BlackBerry to claim the third spot in developer interest.

Apple iOS interest remains high with 91 percent of developers saying they are ‘very interested’ in iPhone development and 86 percent are very interested in developing for the iPad. Google’s reported interest in Android phones fell two points to 85 percent and Android tablets fell three points to 71 percent after increasing twelve points in Q1. Although technically within standard deviations, these drops stand in contrast to steadily increasing developer interest in Android over the last year and are consistent with an increase in developer frustration with Android.

Nearly 63 percent of respondents said that device fragmentation in Android poses the biggest risk to Android, followed by weak initial traction in tablets at 30 percent and multiple Android application stores at 28 percent. While 71 percent of developers are very interested in Android as a tablet OS, only 52 percent are very interested in the Samsung Galaxy Tab. Only 44 percent are very interested in the Motorola Xoom and 31 percent in the upcoming HTC Flyer. Smaller players (Acer, Archos) register minimal interest.

In short, the promise of an Android tablet is appealing, but the reality of currently, or soon-to-be, shipping devices is disappointing to developers. Microsoft edges RIM to finish third but the respondents’ interest in Microsoft and RIM dropped substantially from the last quarter. Microsoft fell seven points, with only 29 percent of developers saying they are ‘very interested’ in the Windows Phone 7, while BlackBerry phones dropped eleven points to 27 percent. On the upside, and partly as a result of Microsoft’s partnership announcement with Nokia, Windows Phone 7 interest fell four points less than BlackBerry to make Microsoft the new number three in developer interest behind Apple and Google.

Appcelerator and IDC surveyed developers and businesses on the extent to which they use the mobile cloud in their applications and which cloud-enabled and cloud-based services are most important. Nearly 84 percent of respondents said that they are using at least one cloud-enabled or cloud-based service in their applications.

About 78 percent are using social cloud services such as Facebook or Twitter, 70 percent are using commerce (PayPal, Apple), 70 percent are connecting to their own behind-the-firewall enterprise services such as Oracle, SAP or another backend database, while 65 percent are streaming media such as YouTube or flickr, and 65 percent are using real-time messaging such as Urban Airship. Nearly 42 percent are displaying mobile ads from services such as iAd or AdMob, while 54 percent use analytics in their applications such as Omniture, Appcelerator, or Flurry and 44 percent deploy cloud platform services to Amazon and Microsoft Azure. Developers and businesses, on average, plan to use thirteen of the 44 services with mobile cloud components polled in their applications now and over the coming 12-18 months. Over 80 percent of mobile application developers said they either are building or plan to build mobile websites this year. However, most respondents indicated that the revenue opportunity, customer demand, and user experience still strongly favours mobile applications.

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